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以房子为中心的时代将结束 或许只需两三年! [复制链接]

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发表于 2017-7-3 10:17:46 |显示全部楼层
现在,中国的经济与社会可能正处在一个重要的转折点上。而形成这个转折点的一个重要的因素就是:以房子为中心的时代即将结束,而且可能就是这两三年的事情。

实际上,这个过程在此前的三五年间,就已经逐步开始了。从我身边的情况看,在2016年之前的几年时间里,很多朋友已经不怎么关心房子的事情了,这方面的议论也越来越少。更普遍的说法是,房子已经差不多了,而且房产税的前景不明,该给自己好好活一段时间了。

当然,我说的身边的朋友,也就是说我的朋友圈子,年龄相对较大,经济情况也相对不错。那这是不是属于个别的情况?可能不是的。作为佐证的是,全国许多地方的房价,包括一些经济比较发达地方的房价,在此前的几年中都是比较平稳的。比如说,经济很发达的苏州、中山等城市,房价都是多年徘徊。就是北京、上海这样的城市,在此前的几年间,房价的涨幅也很是有限。

那么,为什么从去年开始,许多地方的房价又开始大幅上涨?不少地方一年里房价翻了一番?甚至有的地方出现一房难求的情况?

需要对其中的原因进行具体分析。

去年上半年房地产趋热,与去库存的政策有关。2015年12月中央城市工作会议上指出,明年经济社会发展五大任务之一就是化解房地产库存。会后,各地政府开始出台刺激房地产市场发展的措施。去库存政策对房地产的作用,不仅仅是那些政策本身的刺激,更主要是给出了一个信号:政府开始鼓励买房。

到了去年下半年,另外一个因素开始发生作用,即对货币贬值预期所形成的心理共振。去年下半年,外汇大量流出,对货币贬值的预期为大多数人所认同。于是,形成恐慌性购房热:有的本来有了两套以上的房子,同时经济条件不错,本来不想再买房子的,因担心货币贬值重新加入购房的行列;又经济条件不错,但错失了此前房地产红利的,觉得又一次机会来临,再也不能错过;而一些本来想过两年买房子的年轻人,也担心手里好不容易攒的那点钱贬值,也提前了购房计划。

到去年底,今年初,换汇限制收紧,一方面加重了人们对货币贬值的预期,另一方面也收紧了财富保值的渠道,于是使更多的钱涌入房地产。

换句话说,去年到今年的购房热,并不是突然出现了大量的刚需,也不能简单归结于所谓“炒房”。“炒房”的因素不能说不存在,但面对如此巨大的房地产市场,使很多地方的房价上涨一倍,不是那些投机性资金能够做到的。从某种意义上说,是人为折腾出来的。

但不管怎么说,这轮房地产热,是特殊背景下的暂时现象。并不影响我上面所说的基本判断。

我们可以再看两个数据。

迄今为止,中国城镇居民的人均住房面积已经由1978年的6.7平米提高到现在的30多平米,城镇户均住房达到1.1套(尽管分布很不平均)。这两个指标都已达到发达国家的水平。也就是说,如果不考虑城市化的因素,不考虑农民进城的因素,这些房子已经足够城市居民住了。当然,我不否认结构性问题的存在。

另外一个就是库存。按照有的学者的研究,现在在售、在建、已批的建筑面积已达132亿平方米(另一说为63亿平米)。按人均30平米计,广义库存的住房足够4亿人居住。按人均20平米计算,广义库存的住房足够6.5亿人居住。按照现在中国人口变动的趋势,可以说,如果把已经批出的地也算上(那是迟早也会盖成房子的),我们已经把下几代人的房子都给盖完了。

有人说,不对吧,中国还有那么多年轻人需要买房子呢,怎么能说以房子为中心的时代快要结束了?据澳大利亚《卫报》报道,汇丰银行的一项调查发现,80、90后平均住房拥有率为40%,中国以70%的比率位列第一。墨西哥、法国位列二三名分别为46%和41%,马来西亚和美国排名并列第四为35%,加拿大排名第六为34%,英国排名第七为31%,澳大利亚排名倒数第二为28%,阿联酋位居末位为26%。

这个房地产超常规发展或居民集中置业的时代应该结束了。当然,我也不认为,以房地产为中心时代的结束,就是房地产黑暗时代的来临。(本篇为孙立平教授于2017年5月18日在上海举办的虎啸论坛上所作演讲内容节选。)

《以房子为中心的时代即将结束,也许就是这两三年的事情》一文发出后,无数多的提问迎面而来。老实说,很多都是我回答不了的问题。

比如有人问:那我还要不要买房子?

其实这样的问题,过去也经常有人问到,当然主要是身边的朋友。我一般的回答是,如果是刚需,随时买,别等。如果今天问我,我还是这个回答。一位有房子的朋友,今天又问。我只能说,该买的就买,不该买的就不买。朋友听了还是一头雾水。其实,我要说的是,尽管以房子为中心的时代即将结束,但紧接着的并不见得是房地产的崩盘(尽管有人觉得崩盘很痛快)。任何地方、任何时候房子都可以成为投资的对象,即使是现在,洼地仍然是有的。但我这里不能讲这个问题,恐怕产生误导。

还有人问:我几套房子,现在要不要卖?

我在讲课时每当讲到这个事情,课间休息的时候,都会有人问到上面的问题。这个问题也不好回答。我强调三点。第一,房子在哪里?今后房地产市场会明显分化。一线城市继续短缺,县城虽然也是房子严重过剩,但是农民进城的首选,将来最惨的是不发达地区的地级市。第二,卖了房有没有合适的投资渠道?我们知道大多数人是没有的。那你拿这钱干什么?第三,尽管美国缩表,中国货币政策也有紧缩的迹象,但为了保增长,超发货币,从而导致货币贬值,还是大概率事件。

以房子为中心时代结束之后,就是房地产崩盘吗?不少人在评论中表达了这样的期待。其实仔细分析,有这种期待的人,往往都是想买房子的。(期待的人越多,说明需求越大。)但我的看法是,我在今天的微博里也讲了,以房子为中心时代的结束,与房地产崩盘是两回事。网上传,马云说,8年后,房子像大葱一样便宜!我不知道转述的准确不准确,但我的看法,这种可能性极小。但即便那样,也是暂时的现象。

所以,应当准确理解以房子为中心时代的结束这个判断。我说以房子为中心时代结束,不是说,那时候人们都不需要买房子了,房地产这个产业就完蛋了。我说的以房子为中心时代的结束,是说整个社会围着房子转那样一个时代的结束。各位可以想想过去这些年的情景:人们把挣来的钱基本都用在房子上,条件好的,买完一套接着攒钱买第二套,买完第二套接着攒钱买第三套;条件差的,全家节衣缩食,东拼西凑,攒钱买房。其他方面的需求,能压缩压缩,能凑合凑合。很多人说,这些年基本就为房子活着了。

在以房子为中心时代的结束之后,当然还有人要买房子,还有更多的人需要还房贷。但会有越来越多的人不再把钱用在房子上,或者至少不再把主要收入用在房子上。

这个时候的房地产,应当进入一个正常的发展时期,因为在这个时候正常的需求仍然存在。

首先,城市化的进程。近些年来中国城市化的过程虽然按照统计学的意义上进展很快,但许多在统计上被算作城市人口的“流动人口”并没有在城市中真正定居下来。随着部分人经济条件的改善,必然会出现在城市购房的需求。

第二,房地产的结构性问题。虽然在三四线城市住宅过剩较为严重,但一线城市、部分二线城市住宅供需缺口仍然不小,特别是新进入这些城市的“新市民”,存在较大的购房需求。

第三,无论在哪类城市中,改善性需求都明显存在。虽然目前中国住房的自有率很高,但相当一部分房屋的品质较低,或面积狭小。随着二胎的普遍化,城市改造,对较大面积的高品质住宅仍有不小的需求。

所以我不主张用一种极端的态度看待这种转变。

最后谈谈如何对待已有的房子。

首先要看清楚目前居民有的这些房子、这些房子所体现的财富对他们意味着什么?

第一,这笔以房子为载体的财富,是中国老百姓改革开放30年来积累的一笔财富。改革开放30年,中国经济快速发展,体现在老百姓身上,积累起来的就是这些以房子为载体的财富。

第二,这笔以房子为载体的财富,是中国中产阶层形成和发育的最根本的基础。可以说,这些年大部分中产阶层都把满足基本需求之外的收入用在房子上了。其中一部分人有了一套甚至两套以上的房子。

第三,这笔以房子为载体的财富,是社会保障很不健全情况下医疗养老的重要保障。中国面临着严峻的老龄化问题,而社会保障则很不健全。很难想象在可见的将来,养老的问题能由社会承担起来,因此,很多人拥有的两套或两套以上的住房,部分地具有养老基金的含义。

鉴于以上种种情况,对于以房子为中心时代结束之后的房地产政策应当慎重选择。我总的看法是,要避免在房地产政策上忽冷忽热的大折腾,促进房地产的平稳着陆。最稳妥的办法,是以渐进的方式消除泡沫,即稳定房价,在实际收入提高和不可避免的通货膨胀双重作用下,降低收入房价比。

之所以提出上面的看法,是基于以下的考虑:中国持续了近20年的房地产超常规发展,虽然问题不少,但对于经济发展和民众居住条件的改善,功不可没。但走到今天,以房子为中心的时代,确实到了要结束的时候了。

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With the recent death of a Guyanese who contracted the H1N1 virus,Air Max 98 Gundam 2018, Public Health Minister Dr. George Norton has said that the Ministry immediately started dealing with the health care workers who were attending to this patient, as well as their relatives.“Thus far, no one has come down with the signs or symptoms of that particular viral infection,” he said.This statement was made by the Minister in an interview with the Government Information Agency (GINA). In terms of preparedness Dr. Norton noted, “There is a tablet that we use and we have it available. There’s also a vaccine,Cheap Adidas Superstar Shoes,” he said.A point to note is that currently Trinidad and Tobago has a shortage of this tablet and they’re seeking help from Guyana with this first line of attack. Having sufficient,Nike Air Max 2018 Release, the Public Health Ministry has agreed to assist Trinidad by supplying the tablets.With respect to the vaccine,Cheap Jerseys Free Shipping, it is not an antigen that is given routinely, the Health Minister explained. “This influenza-like vaccine is done occasionally in times of crises, and we have not reached that stage where we would go and give the vaccination to everyone.“However, not so long ago, Guyana has on record vaccinated 120,000 Guyanese, using that same vaccine; so if it becomes necessary we will do so, but so far we don’t have- there’s no need for that,” he added.Further, Port Health Officers are fully aware of these preventative and treatment measures and are fully prepared to deal with any unpleasant situation.“They are there present at the Timehri International Airport and the Ogle International Airport, along with the Moleson Creek crossing, the Lethem Bridge as well as Charity. But of course … we’ve got the porous border.“The water is low in the Takutu River in the Ireng River and people are literally walking across those rivers. In all the different parts of the Rupununi, Achiwib for instance, and places like that, also in Region Eight, in the Kanapang, Itaback areas, you have persons who cross that river just walking across,” he explained.Symptoms of the H1N1 virus include coughing, fever,Cheap Huarache Shoes For Men, sore throat,Nike Air Max 97 Order Online, body aches and headaches.? It can only be transmitted if an infected person coughs or sneezes and thus releasing the virus infected particles into the air.Citizens are urged to abstain from travelling to countries where the H1N1 virus is present unless it’s necessary.

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The normally quiet household of an 18-year-old girl has been thrown into chaos after she went missing two Saturday’s ago.The missing Deokumarie SinghYesterday relatives told this newspaper that the young woman left the home on March 28,Jerseys NFL Wholesale, last,China Soccer Jerseys, for her workplace in the city and has not been seen or heard from since. One relative said that their efforts to contact the girl by mobile phone were futile as the days flew by.Another stated that on March 28,Cheap NFL Jerseys, her boss called the home to inquire why the young girl named,Cheap Jerseys Wholesale, Deokumarie Singh,Wholesale China Jerseys, a ka Rosemary, was not on duty. Relatives said this was surprising since the young woman had left earlier,NFL Jerseys China, indicating that she was headed for her worksite.Another related that they promptly called her cell phone and the person who answered adamantly insisted that she was on her job site. Relatives became alarmed when she had not returned home by nightfall and could not be located thereafter.One associate of the young girl however disclosed that a private car dropped her off at a home (at Enmore Pasture, East Coast Demerara) everyday and enquiries from family members have met with the reply that the driver of the red Honda (number given) car was ‘just a friend’. Anyone with information of the girl’s whereabouts can call phone number 270-6630 or contact the nearest Police Station.

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Dwayne Armstrong, 25, a labourer and father of three of Portuguese Quarters, Corentyne,Wholesale Jerseys China, Berbice was on Friday sentenced to three years in jail by Magistrate Rabindranauth Singh at the Albion Magistrate’s court and pleaded guilty to the charge of Robbery Under Arms.On September 5, last,China Jerseys Cheap, at Rose Hall Town, Corentyne, Berbice he and Abdul Moore, 23,Jerseys NFL Wholesale, of Rose Hall Town and Joshua Chisholm, called Tommy Lee, 18, of Corentyne, Berbice while armed with a dangerous weapon,Cheap Jerseys Online, robbed one Meena Chinapen of $240,000.According to Armstrong, he and his two cohorts went to the woman’s house at Rose Hall. He was armed with a knife. They proceeded to remove some louver panes from the bottom flat of the house.? He climbed up on the verandah,Cheap Stitched Jerseys, opened the front door and let in Moore and Chisholm.They then proceeded to rob the woman. They took away the money that was in a chair and other articles before escaping.The matter was reported and after investigations the men were arrested and charged.The men first all pleaded not guilty,jerseys from china, but Armstrong subsequently changed his plea to guilty and was sentenced to three years in jail.The other two are on $50,000 bail each.

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President of the Guyana Manufacturing and Services Association, Clinton Williams, has joined the long list of persons who are urging the speedy passing of the Anti Money Laundering Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML CFT) and the implementation of all the outstanding requirements outlined in its Action.Clinton WilliamsIn a statement issued recently, Williams said that it is now more apparent that our parliamentary parties are continuing to dither in the Select Committee over refining the AML CFT legislation.According to Williams, Guyana has already been blacklisted by the Caribbean Financial Action Task Force (CFATF) “but Guyanese from every walk of life could be spared the harsher effects of ultimate blacklisting if only our parliamentarians would work with more alacrity to pass the amended Bill.”The amendments to the legislation, according to the GMSA,Cheap Adidas NHL Jerseys, accompany other agreements which have not been contested, yet they have not yet been properly constituted.The Financial Intelligence Unit is one such.The GSMA said that the general population, the business community and civil society are yet to be assured that the non-contentious requirements in the CFAFT bill have been implemented and put to work.CFATF requires that Guyana passes the stipulated legislation and implement all the outstanding requirements outlined in its Action Plan.? These include mechanisms to fully criminalize money laundering and terrorist financing offences, and address all the requirements regarding beneficial ownership. Guyana also has to strengthen its mechanisms for suspicious transaction reporting, for international co-operation, for freezing and confiscating terrorist assets, and fully implementing the United Nations conventions.The GSMA said that while some effort has been made to address these deficiencies, the CFATF is not satisfied that Guyana has taken sufficient steps to improve our compliance with the AML CFT regime.“Members of the Parliamentary Select Committee need not be reminded that harsh penalties are in store for Guyana if when the country is eventually classified by the international task Force as NON-COMPLIANT.“From all appearances, Guyana will again fail to meet the next CFAFT deadline. What they do need reminding of is that the average Guyanese will face the full impact of the penalties for a long time,Wholesale Jerseys, consequences that promise to disrupt our lives and livelihoods,NFL Jerseys From China,” Williams said in his statement.He stated that the stigmatization of Guyana and Guyanese will seep into every pore of this nation and contaminate the nation’s political, social and most of all, our economic wellbeing.“It takes no stretch of the imagination to conclude that the 5 percent growth that Guyana’s economy has recorded in the past two years could very well be whittled away as the result of the crippling absence of a macro vision,Wholesale China Jerseys, this seeming inability to see the ‘big picture’. The prognosis for this nation is grim once this parliamentary indecisiveness continues.”The GMSA once again appealed to the legislators to consider the real consequences of their inaction on the people of Guyana,Cheap Jerseys Wholesale, to find agreement on the few amendments to the CFAFT Action Plan,Wholesale Authentic Jerseys, and most of all, to implement the support mechanisms needed to fight money laundering and financing of terrorism.

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发表于 2018-6-25 21:58:19 |显示全部楼层

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– fuel skyrockets, cash runs outThe Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment yesterday met with representatives of the Guyana Manufacturing and Services Association (GMSA) and the Forest Producers Association (FPA), to look at ways in which the Ministry can lend support to ensure that items of produce are taken into logging and mining camps.Representatives of the Forestry Producers Association (FPA), and the Guyana Manufacturing and Services Association (GMSA) during a meeting with Natural Resources and Environment Minister Robert Persaud in the Boardroom of the MinistrySince the commencement of the protest by Lindeners, miners, forestry producers and workers within the bauxite industry have been suffering because transportation of fuel and food into the area and to the mining camps is almost at a standstill.Alternative mechanisms to ensure that produce enter mining camps in a low cost way, delay the implementation of the new Export Lobby, the establishment of a hotline number so that forestry and mining operators can make contact and the development of alternative routes if there is a recurrence of the issue, are some of the mechanisms the Ministry is currently implementing.The team which was lead by President of the Guyana Manufacturing and Services Association, Mohindra Chand, who updated the Minister on the present price gouging they face to take their produce into the backdams.“We have been getting lots of calls from businesses that are currently unable to get anything through the road blocks…Apart from the price gouging for basic foodstuff, we are forced to have our produce air-dashed and this is costing us a lot,” Chand said.Currently, operators are forced to pay $75,Cheap Jerseys Free Shipping,000 per barrel for fuel and the operators are looking to the Ministry for support and guidance on the way forward.Chand,Wholesale Jerseys China, who pledged on behalf of the forest industry to give the necessary support to the Ministry,Cheap Adidas Hockey Jerseys, stated that there is currently little fuel supplies left in Kwakwani, Region Ten where a significant amount of logging is being done.Khalawan, a representative of the FPA,China Jerseys, also spoke of how the present situation is hurting the industry and operators who are working for an honest living.“There is no means of even getting cash into the camps. We have to pay workers as well as manage our operations…We would normally rely on getting cash from the banks in Linden but this is a ‘no- no’ because of the situation,” he said.According to Khalawan,Jerseys Wholesale, more than 25 workers have since been sent packing from the Coldingen,Jerseys NFL Wholesale, East Coast Demerara location because he is unable to supply lumber for the operations. Buyers are also threatening legal actions against suppliers for breach of their contractual arrangements to supply on time.Minister Persaud, while acknowledging the situation, committed to ensuring that alternatives are developed so that work can progress. Foreign buyers are cancelling their orders under the basis that Guyana is unreliable, he said.He denounced the actions of? the protestors, stating that workers want to continue to ply their trade and encouraged the Lindeners to not be misguided by extremists with their political motives.Government is currently holding regular meetings with the Opposition and Region Ten officials to look at ways in which the issue can be resolved and which will bring a sense of normalcy to the mining town.“People’s livelihoods are at stake and this form of action must stop…however. I don’t anticipate that the situation will prolong much longer,” he said.The meeting with the forestry operators is one of a series being held by the Ministry to resolve barriers so that operations can progress smoothly.

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发表于 2018-6-27 21:19:26 |显示全部楼层

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Grants $39.1M to Merundoi Inc Head of the European Union (EU) delegation in Guyana Ambassador Robert Kopeck? and Executive Director of Merundoi Inc Margaret Lawrence yesterday signed a grant contract for the implementation of a project captioned “Modelling and Reinforcement to combat Domestic Violence.”rom Left Executive Director of Merundoi Margaret Lawrence and Right Ambassador Robert Kopeck?.The grant which is funded from the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights (EIDHR) 2012-2013 and comes at a cost of EURO 137, 222 ($39.1M).The European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights (EIDHR) is a self-standing financing instrument that provides assistance for the promotion of democracy and human rights worldwide, and in Guyana specifically aims at assisting civil society to become an effective force for political reform and the defence of human rights.According to the EU “Since 2010, the EU Delegation in Guyana has launched regular calls for proposals under this thematic line and to date has provided grant financial assistance to a total of 22 beneficiaries, totalling approximately EURO 1.4M ($399M).”Merundoi which is an Amerindian word from the Akawaio tribe,Austin Hooper Falcons Jersey, means strength, stamina,Blank Arsenal Jersey UK, courage and hope. It is a local Non-Governmental Organisation established in 2007 and its mandate is to work with its partners towards a Guyanese society where every child has the right to grow up in a safe and secure family and community.According to the European Union the overall objectives of the Merundoi Inc project are “to sensitize men and young boys about the effects of Gender Based Violence (GBV),Kyrie Irving Jersey, and encourage them to adopt new attitudes,2018 NFL Draft Jersey, behaviours and practices that will improve their lives, to educate young people about GBV as a preventive approach with education rooted in gender- and rights-based approaches, and to empower women to identify all forms of abuse and to take action to protect themselves.”This, the EU said, will be achieved through the utilization of entertainment and education to raise general awareness leading to raising questions and fostering dialogue that will lead to attitude and behaviour changes.Ambassador Robert Kopeck? stated that? “not only does the EU advocate for better protection for victims of domestic violence, the EU also advocates for the eradication of domestic violence in all forms. The rights of vulnerable persons, especially those subjected to the scourge of domestic violence, are particularly important and the Merundoi project seemed particularly appropriate in this regard.”He said that he looks forward to an effective implementation of the project as it complements the existing work on the ground “initiated by the Government of Guyana and other civil society partners.”The Ambassador said that the EU adopted the European Protection Order (EPO) “which will help to protect victims of crime and victims of violence,NCAA Football Jerseys, wherever they go in Europe: the protection will travel with the citizen.” The Ambassador opined that the EPO could be looked at for best practices in combating domestic violence locally.While Executive Director of Merundoi,Brent Seabrook Jersey,? Margaret Lawrence articulated that research shows that Domestic Violence crosses racial and socioeconomic lines with “31 women killed in 2012, 24 in 2013 and 4 in January 2014.”According to Lawrence the project will sensitize men and young boys to the effects of Gender Based Violence (GBV), encouraging them to adopt new behaviours; empower women and girls to identify all abuse and protect themselves and facilitate general dialogue leading to behaviour change.She said that work under EU funding will be done in the ten administrative regions with in and out of school females and males; current and former prisoners; men; parents. The general public will be therefore given a voice in preventing violence against women.“It is envisaged that the grant to Merundoi Inc. will supplement the work already undertaken by other grant beneficiaries locally, and the organization will be working over the next twenty four months towards the effective roll-out of the activities foreseen under the intervention.”

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发表于 2018-6-29 22:11:13 |显示全部楼层

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A 22-year-old man is currently incarcerated at the Aurora Police Station,Gordon Hayward Jersey, after a sex allegation was levelled against him. He was accused of having sex with a 15-year-old,Wholesale MLB Jerseys, who is said to be now five months pregnant.According to reports,Jeff Green Jersey, the man who hails from Supenaam Creek and who works in the interior has been in police custody since Thursday after police received a statement from the teenager,Authentic Buffalo Bills Jersey, who said she was sexually involved with the man.Police have said charges are likely to be instituted against the man.Reports are that over a year ago,, the man was incarcerated for a similar offence levelled against him by the same teenager.The teenager is a student of the Pomona Secondary and resides at Supenaam Creek. Her mother is an active community policing officer.

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发表于 2018-7-2 09:16:36 |显示全部楼层

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A Guyanese,Huarache Shoes For Men, Howard Earl,Cheap Soccer Gear, has been charged for allegedly practicing medicine in St. Lucia without a proper licence and not being a registered medical practitioner,Alexis Sanchez Chile Jersey, according to the whatsupcaribbean website yesterday.The office used by Earl to practise his illegal activities has been closed by police and all the equipment at the location has been confiscated.Illegal doctor? – Howard EarlLaw enforcement officials also closed a number of other clinics and medical businesses operated by the defendant.He was granted $5000 dollar bail or suitable surety on each charge when he made his first court appearance on Tuesday morning.

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